Doing Probability Right
It's November, which means it's time to dive head first into a tough topic for many students: probability. What makes probability so hard to learn?
Here's our theory: traditionally, we teach probability using formulas. Read the question -> Apply the formula -> Solve. However, two probability problems that cover the same rule (e.g. addition rule) can have very different representations (Venn diagram, two-way table, tree diagram, event notation) and very different framing. So, students spend a lot of time trying to pattern-match formulas to problems. However, they get stuck in novel situations. They often don't know where to even begin.
Instead, it'd be more effective for students to reason through problems based on a set of probabilistic principles. How do we teach students to do that? The same thing we always do: make it relevant! When students think about probability in real, motivating, nuanced, and novel contexts, they develop the intuition behind the principles of probability. This intuition then allows them to apply their thinking in new situations.
Below, we feature one of our probability lessons from AP Stats. The lesson uses the context of online dating to intuitively motivate the addition rule, rather than merely defining the rule with formulas. You'll find all of our intuitive probability rules and more motivating lesson contexts in our full probability unit.
Let’s skew it!
Addition Rule & Online Dating
Lesson 5.2
Do people lie in their online dating profiles? We use probabilistic reasoning and OKCupid data to find out.